Looking ahead to 2020

Geetha Krishnan at Simply Speaking has posed a question regarding the learning formats we expect to see in 2020. Geetha is based in Mumbai where he heads up the consulting division at Tata Interactive Systems.

I started to frame my thoughts as a reply to an email from him, then, being concerned that I might be way off base and an email would give no-one the opportunity to express disagreement, I moved to the idea of a comment on Geetha,'s blog. That grew too long, so here it is!

I'm a bit cautious about making predictions, because the rate at which new technologies appear means that, in twenty years time, we will probably be using technologies that have not yet been developed. Perhaps they have not yet even been thought of!

However, I would hope that, whatever technological platform is used to deliver it, learning will have become more learner driven. I anticipate more just-in-time, interactive tools by means of which a user can locate the instruction they need at any given moment. I would expect such tools to serve the purpose of connecting people-to-people, not just people-to-technology.

I would desperately hope that learning solutions will be seamlessly blended to the point that people have stopped referring to them as such.

I would expect to see a lot more user generated content, too - multimedia nuggets designed to serve as minitutorials. I would expect learning professionals to have had to learn how to collate these resources and incorporate them into any end-to-end solutions that are called for. This is very likely to include resources developed by people outside of the organisation. Like Cammy Bean (see her comment on Geetha's post), I suspect individuals will seek support from others within their community of practice, regardless of where they are based. This is particularly likely if search engines continue to be improved to the point where they are able to make sense of searches, and return appropriate results, rather than simply returning results in which the listed keywords happen to be included.

When it comes to systems support, I suspect that we are likely to see context sensitive user support in the form of user generated content superimposed over the top of the application interface, so that it appears to be a part of the system itself.

However...

I have expressed concern that we seem increasingly focused on what we want people to do to the extent that we are completely omitting the 'why this is appropriate'. All around me, in a number of sectors, I see job roles (including that of teachers) being gradually but inexorably reduced to processes or sequences of actions: do this, then that, then that.

The problem with this approach is that it equips no-one at the ground level to identify when a procedure is no longer appropriate. There is the possibility that this will result in a reversion to the hierarchical, top-down management structures of yesteryear, where the boss knows best, because only he/she understands the drivers.

The backlash of this might mean that all my 'predictions' above are totally bogus and that we will instead see a return to the traditional training model that went with the traditional management model.

I hope not. I hate the idea of training as something that it is done to people! I am all about empowerment, and personal and professional development are a better fit for an empowered workforce than top-down training.

I would like to see both performance management and learning become more seamlessly embedded into the day job, with an increase in coaching and mentoring provision. I suspect this will only happen if the yardsticks by which an individual's performance is measured include an appraisal of their contribution to the wider community and the development and support of their colleagues.

But I'm guessing!

Predicting 2009?

Around this time of year, many bloggers post their predictions for what the year ahead will hold. Without meaning to sound too cynical, I predict that most predictions will prove to be wide of the mark. We live in a world in which the pace is now so fast that things change far too quickly to accommodate accurate predictions.

Let's look at it this way: did your government see this recession coming? If so, why didn't they take evasive action? If not, well, what chance have we got of making an accurate prediction?

I suspect that we haven't seen the bottom of the economic trough, yet. A schoolfriend of mine IM-ed me on New Year's eve to say that '09 couldn't be as bad as '08. I responded as follows:

Sorry to say but it can and it will.

But that depends on what one means by 'as bad'. One thing I have noticed about affluent societies is a tendency to insularity. People don't know their neighbours and everyone pursues their lives in isolation. Everyone tends their own patch, and minds their own business to the extent that those of us from different cultures find unspeakably lonely.

It is in those cultures where everyone has very little that we see a greater tendency for people to bear one another's burdens, to pitch in uninvited and help one another out. From where I sit, an economic squeeze that improves our sense of community is no bad thing. After all, stuff is just stuff.

I often wonder if the open-handedness of the online community is not a backlash of this insularity as people seek to connect with one another in a way increasingly unavailable in the physical realm.

So my 'prediction' is that I have no idea what's coming. I just believe that we're in for a tough year, and as the roller coaster ride begins, let me say with all sincerity that, if I can help you in any way, give me a yell. I never feel more fulfilled than when I am providing a service to people - it's the cloth I'm cut from. Roll your eyes if you must, but it is what it is.